Expectations

Prediction Markets Agent

Tracks market-implied probabilities for macro events.

Utility

This agent must be runnable on its own and must produce evidence that supports a decision, an avoidance, or a confidence change.

Decisions Supported

event riskipolicy expectationsi

Questions Answered

What outcomes are markets pricing?i

Data Sources

Yahoo event-risk proxy basketiPolymarketiMetaculusi

Current Run Market Data

Label	Symbol	Group	Price	Change	Change %	Status
VIX	^VIX	event_risk	24.63	-3.55	-12.60%	live
TLT	TLT	event_risk	82.04	0.11	+0.13%	live
UUP	UUP	event_risk	29.14	0.22	+0.76%	live
SPY	SPY	event_risk	737.84	4.84	+0.66%	live

Computed Signal

Name	Value	Regime	Confidence	Source	Observed
event_risk_proxy_score	55.2	constructive	100%	Yahoo chart endpoint	2026-11-06T19:33:23+00:00

Declared And Target Feeds

Source	Status	Current Run Data
Yahoo event-risk proxy basket	current run	4/4 observed rows attached below.
Polymarket	target feed	Not used in the current run yet; listed as the permanent feed this agent should graduate to.
Metaculus	target feed	Not used in the current run yet; listed as the permanent feed this agent should graduate to.

Live Status

Event-risk proxy: VIX -12.60%, UUP +0.76%, TLT +0.13%, SPY +0.66%.

Score

Warnings

• No active warnings.

Signals

Name	Value	Regime	Confidence	Source	Observed
event_risk_proxy_score	55.2	constructive	100%	Yahoo chart endpoint	2026-11-06T19:33:23+00:00