Expectations

Prediction Markets Agent

Tracks market-implied probabilities for macro events.

Utility

This agent must be runnable on its own and must produce evidence that supports a decision, an avoidance, or a confidence change.

Decisions Supported

event riskipolicy expectationsi

Questions Answered

What outcomes are markets pricing?i

Data Sources

Yahoo event-risk proxy basketiPolymarketiMetaculusi

Current Run Market Data

Label	Symbol	Group	Price	Change	Change %	Status
VIX	^VIX	event_risk	15.27	0.74	+5.09%	live
TLT	TLT	event_risk	82.22	0.01	+0.01%	live
UUP	UUP	event_risk	28.00	-0.08	-0.28%	live
SPY	SPY	event_risk	767.26	-2.93	-0.38%	live

Computed Signal

Name	Value	Regime	Confidence	Source	Observed
event_risk_proxy_score	25.3	hostile	100%	Yahoo chart endpoint	2026-09-08T16:49:19+00:00

Declared And Target Feeds

Source	Status	Current Run Data
Yahoo event-risk proxy basket	current run	4/4 observed rows attached below.
Polymarket	target feed	Not used in the current run yet; listed as the permanent feed this agent should graduate to.
Metaculus	target feed	Not used in the current run yet; listed as the permanent feed this agent should graduate to.

Live Status

Event-risk proxy: VIX +5.09%, UUP -0.28%, TLT +0.01%, SPY -0.38%.

Score

Warnings

• Event-risk proxy is elevated.

Signals

Name	Value	Regime	Confidence	Source	Observed
event_risk_proxy_score	25.3	hostile	100%	Yahoo chart endpoint	2026-09-08T16:49:19+00:00