Expectations

Prediction Markets Agent

Tracks market-implied probabilities for macro events.

Utility

This agent must be runnable on its own and must produce evidence that supports a decision, an avoidance, or a confidence change.

Decisions Supported

event riskipolicy expectationsi

Questions Answered

What outcomes are markets pricing?i

Data Sources

Yahoo event-risk proxy basketiPolymarketiMetaculusi

Current Run Market Data

Label	Symbol	Group	Price	Change	Change %	Status
VIX	^VIX	event_risk	16.59	-0.11	-0.66%	live
TLT	TLT	event_risk	84.68	0.46	+0.55%	live
UUP	UUP	event_risk	27.77	0.04	+0.14%	live
SPY	SPY	event_risk	745.64	2.92	+0.39%	live

Computed Signal

Name	Value	Regime	Confidence	Source	Observed
event_risk_proxy_score	55.9	constructive	100%	Yahoo chart endpoint	2026-05-26T00:52:30+00:00

Declared And Target Feeds

Source	Status	Current Run Data
Yahoo event-risk proxy basket	current run	4/4 observed rows attached below.
Polymarket	target feed	Not used in the current run yet; listed as the permanent feed this agent should graduate to.
Metaculus	target feed	Not used in the current run yet; listed as the permanent feed this agent should graduate to.

Live Status

Event-risk proxy: VIX -0.66%, UUP +0.14%, TLT +0.55%, SPY +0.39%.

Score

Warnings

• No active warnings.

Signals

Name	Value	Regime	Confidence	Source	Observed
event_risk_proxy_score	55.9	constructive	100%	Yahoo chart endpoint	2026-05-26T00:52:30+00:00