Control Layer

Score Breakdown

Finance Swarm sees a constructive but incomplete tape. Score is 58.9/100 with 82% confidence.

Components

Component	Score	Weight	Contribution	Evidence
Market Tape / Nowcast	54.1	0.12	6.5	Live tape is mixed. Indexes average +0.63%, watched-equity breadth is 50%, and crypto averages -0.49%. live_tape_score: 54.1 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
US Bond Market	45.9	0.10	4.6	Rates average +0.39% and duration ETFs average -0.02%. bond_market_score: 45.9 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Credit	49.2	0.10	4.9	High-yield proxies average -0.08% versus LQD -0.14%. credit_proxy_score: 49.2 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Dollar / FX	37.1	0.05	1.9	Dollar proxies average +0.72%; stronger dollar tightens global liquidity. dollar_liquidity_score: 37.1 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Commodities	49.5	0.05	2.5	Oil +0.13%, copper -0.06%, gold -0.75%. commodity_mix_score: 49.5 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Market Internals	55.6	0.10	5.6	FS sector basket breadth is 52%; 64% of sectors have at least half their top-3 sample positive. sector_breadth_score: 55.6 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Crypto Risk Appetite	45.1	0.03	1.4	BTC/ETH average -0.49%. crypto_risk_appetite_score: 45.1 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Options / Volatility	100.0	0.06	6.0	Volatility proxies average -8.55%. volatility_positioning_score: 100 (supportive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Source Health	100.0	0.07	7.0	197/197 quote sources returned live data. source_health_score: 100.0 (supportive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Policy Rate	59.4	0.06	3.6	Live rate proxies average 4.50; rate basket is moving +0.51% today. policy_rate_proxy_score: 59.4 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Net Liquidity	51.3	0.08	4.1	Liquidity proxy impulse is +0.12% using BTC, TLT, HYG, QQQ, and inverse dollar pressure. net_liquidity_proxy_score: 51.3 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Money Supply	45.4	0.04	1.8	Monetary-liquidity proxy impulse is -0.46% across BTC, gold, TLT, and inverse dollar pressure. money_supply_proxy_score: 45.4 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Inflation	63.6	0.06	3.8	Inflation proxy: oil +0.09%, copper -0.06%, gold -0.75%, 10Y yield +0.33%. inflation_proxy_score: 63.6 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Labor	58.3	0.04	2.3	Labor-sensitive cyclical proxies average +0.69% across IWM, XLI, and XLY. labor_market_proxy_score: 58.3 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Housing	32.3	0.03	1.0	Housing ETF proxies average -1.36% across XHB and ITB. housing_proxy_score: 32.3 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Consumer	54.9	0.01	0.5	Consumer proxies: XLY +0.51%, XLP -0.95%, XRT -1.22%. consumer_proxy_score: 54.9 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Earnings	62.0	0.07	4.3	Earnings-sensitive equity proxy breadth is 56%; average move is +0.18%. earnings_proxy_score: 62.0 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Valuation	57.4	0.06	3.4	Equity valuation proxy: SPY/QQQ average +1.21%; rate pressure +0.33%. valuation_proxy_score: 57.4 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Flows	58.6	0.04	2.3	ETF flow proxy: risk basket +0.86% versus TLT +0.10%. flows_proxy_score: 58.6 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Sentiment	100.0	0.04	4.0	Sentiment proxy: VIX/VIXY -8.55% versus BTC/QQQ +0.63%. sentiment_proxy_score: 100 (supportive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Prediction Markets	55.4	0.03	1.7	Event-risk proxy: VIX -12.95%, UUP +0.73%, TLT +0.10%, SPY +0.67%. event_risk_proxy_score: 55.4 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Political Risk	58.7	0.03	1.8	Policy-risk proxy: VIX -12.95%, UUP +0.73%, TLT +0.09%, XLI +0.47%. political_risk_proxy_score: 58.7 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Political Trades	54.5	0.02	1.1	House PTR index shows 457 2026 periodic transaction filings; sampled filings mention no parsed tickers. house_ptr_activity_score: 54.5 (mixed, confidence 70%, source House Clerk PTR index and House PTR PDFs)
Appropriations / Contracts	69.1	0.02	1.4	USAspending returned 10 recent contract transactions by action date; sampled obligations total $5.1B. recent_contract_transaction_flow_score: 69.1 (constructive, confidence 90%, source USAspending transaction API)
COT / Futures Positioning	61.5	0.03	1.8	Futures-positioning proxy average absolute move is 0.35%; DXY +0.71%. cot_positioning_proxy_score: 61.5 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Revision	70.0	0.03	2.1	Run-revision proxy has 33 live inputs and 12 active caution flags. run_revision_proxy_score: 70.0 (supportive, confidence 80%, source Finance Swarm Control Layer)
Contradiction	46.4	0.05	2.3	Agent score dispersion is 16.9 points across 34 live inputs; 12 warning flags are active. cross_agent_contradiction_score: 46.4 (mixed, confidence 80%, source Finance Swarm Control Layer)

Dynamic Levers

Lever	Current	Tolerance	Review	Reason
live_tape_weight	0.12 weight	0.05 to 0.35	No	Live tape is important but cannot dominate once cross-asset agents are live.
confidence_cap	85.00 percent	15.00 to 85.00	No	Confidence is capped when source health, contradictions, and macro domains are not fully live.
blunder_avoidance_bias	0.65 bias	0.50 to 0.80	No	Munger-style posture: require stronger evidence before calling conditions attractive.

Trust Gates

No active trust gates.

Drivers

Positive

Market Internals: 55.6/100. FS sector basket breadth is 52%; 64% of sectors have at least half their top-3 sample positive.
Options / Volatility: 100.0/100. Volatility proxies average -8.55%.
Source Health: 100.0/100. 197/197 quote sources returned live data.
Policy Rate: 59.4/100. Live rate proxies average 4.50; rate basket is moving +0.51% today.
Inflation: 63.6/100. Inflation proxy: oil +0.09%, copper -0.06%, gold -0.75%, 10Y yield +0.33%.
Labor: 58.3/100. Labor-sensitive cyclical proxies average +0.69% across IWM, XLI, and XLY.
Earnings: 62.0/100. Earnings-sensitive equity proxy breadth is 56%; average move is +0.18%.
Valuation: 57.4/100. Equity valuation proxy: SPY/QQQ average +1.21%; rate pressure +0.33%.
Flows: 58.6/100. ETF flow proxy: risk basket +0.86% versus TLT +0.10%.
Sentiment: 100.0/100. Sentiment proxy: VIX/VIXY -8.55% versus BTC/QQQ +0.63%.
Prediction Markets: 55.4/100. Event-risk proxy: VIX -12.95%, UUP +0.73%, TLT +0.10%, SPY +0.67%.
Political Risk: 58.7/100. Policy-risk proxy: VIX -12.95%, UUP +0.73%, TLT +0.09%, XLI +0.47%.
Appropriations / Contracts: 69.1/100. USAspending returned 10 recent contract transactions by action date; sampled obligations total $5.1B.
COT / Futures Positioning: 61.5/100. Futures-positioning proxy average absolute move is 0.35%; DXY +0.71%.
Revision: 70.0/100. Run-revision proxy has 33 live inputs and 12 active caution flags.

Negative

Market Tape / Nowcast: 54.1/100. Live tape is mixed. Indexes average +0.63%, watched-equity breadth is 50%, and crypto averages -0.49%.
US Bond Market: 45.9/100. Rates average +0.39% and duration ETFs average -0.02%.
Credit: 49.2/100. High-yield proxies average -0.08% versus LQD -0.14%.
Dollar / FX: 37.1/100. Dollar proxies average +0.72%; stronger dollar tightens global liquidity.
Commodities: 49.5/100. Oil +0.13%, copper -0.06%, gold -0.75%.
Crypto Risk Appetite: 45.1/100. BTC/ETH average -0.49%.
Net Liquidity: 51.3/100. Liquidity proxy impulse is +0.12% using BTC, TLT, HYG, QQQ, and inverse dollar pressure.
Money Supply: 45.4/100. Monetary-liquidity proxy impulse is -0.46% across BTC, gold, TLT, and inverse dollar pressure.
Housing: 32.3/100. Housing ETF proxies average -1.36% across XHB and ITB.
Consumer: 54.9/100. Consumer proxies: XLY +0.51%, XLP -0.95%, XRT -1.22%.
Political Trades: 54.5/100. House PTR index shows 457 2026 periodic transaction filings; sampled filings mention no parsed tickers.
Contradiction: 46.4/100. Agent score dispersion is 16.9 points across 34 live inputs; 12 warning flags are active.

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