Control Layer

Score Breakdown

Finance Swarm sees mixed conditions. Score is 50.9/100 with 82% confidence.

Components

Component	Score	Weight	Contribution	Evidence
Market Tape / Nowcast	45.7	0.12	5.5	Live tape is mixed. Indexes average -0.58%, watched-equity breadth is 50%, and crypto averages -0.06%. live_tape_score: 45.7 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
US Bond Market	47.8	0.10	4.8	Rates average +0.18% and duration ETFs average -0.03%. bond_market_score: 47.8 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Credit	50.0	0.10	5.0	High-yield proxies average +0.01% versus LQD +0.04%. credit_proxy_score: 50.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Dollar / FX	55.2	0.05	2.8	Dollar proxies average -0.29%; stronger dollar tightens global liquidity. dollar_liquidity_score: 55.2 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Commodities	66.9	0.05	3.3	Oil +0.81%, copper +2.11%, gold -0.82%. commodity_mix_score: 66.9 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Market Internals	42.9	0.10	4.3	FS sector basket breadth is 39%; 45% of sectors have at least half their top-3 sample positive. sector_breadth_score: 42.9 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Crypto Risk Appetite	49.4	0.03	1.5	BTC/ETH average -0.06%. crypto_risk_appetite_score: 49.4 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Options / Volatility	25.5	0.06	1.5	Volatility proxies average +3.06%. volatility_positioning_score: 25.5 (hostile, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Source Health	100.0	0.07	7.0	197/197 quote sources returned live data. source_health_score: 100.0 (supportive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Policy Rate	62.8	0.06	3.8	Live rate proxies average 4.37; rate basket is moving +0.25% today. policy_rate_proxy_score: 62.8 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Net Liquidity	49.9	0.08	4.0	Liquidity proxy impulse is -0.01% using BTC, TLT, HYG, QQQ, and inverse dollar pressure. net_liquidity_proxy_score: 49.9 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Money Supply	47.7	0.04	1.9	Monetary-liquidity proxy impulse is -0.23% across BTC, gold, TLT, and inverse dollar pressure. money_supply_proxy_score: 47.7 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Inflation	68.3	0.06	4.1	Inflation proxy: oil +0.81%, copper +2.11%, gold -0.82%, 10Y yield +0.08%. inflation_proxy_score: 68.3 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Labor	47.0	0.04	1.9	Labor-sensitive cyclical proxies average -0.25% across IWM, XLI, and XLY. labor_market_proxy_score: 47.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Housing	24.3	0.03	0.7	Housing ETF proxies average -1.98% across XHB and ITB. housing_proxy_score: 24.3 (hostile, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Consumer	34.7	0.01	0.3	Consumer proxies: XLY -0.40%, XLP -0.63%, XRT -2.19%. consumer_proxy_score: 34.7 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Earnings	48.0	0.07	3.4	Earnings-sensitive equity proxy breadth is 39%; average move is -0.42%. earnings_proxy_score: 48.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Valuation	48.0	0.06	2.9	Equity valuation proxy: SPY/QQQ average -0.18%; rate pressure +0.08%. valuation_proxy_score: 48.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Flows	48.0	0.04	1.9	ETF flow proxy: risk basket -0.14% versus TLT +0.02%. flows_proxy_score: 48.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Sentiment	30.6	0.04	1.2	Sentiment proxy: VIX/VIXY +3.06% versus BTC/QQQ -0.15%. sentiment_proxy_score: 30.6 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Prediction Markets	24.2	0.03	0.7	Event-risk proxy: VIX +5.23%, UUP -0.29%, TLT +0.02%, SPY -0.41%. event_risk_proxy_score: 24.2 (hostile, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Political Risk	32.3	0.03	1.0	Policy-risk proxy: VIX +5.23%, UUP -0.29%, TLT +0.02%, XLI -0.15%. political_risk_proxy_score: 32.3 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Political Trades	54.0	0.02	1.1	House PTR index shows 379 2026 periodic transaction filings; sampled filings mention no parsed tickers. house_ptr_activity_score: 54.0 (mixed, confidence 70%, source House Clerk PTR index and House PTR PDFs)
Appropriations / Contracts	67.6	0.02	1.4	USAspending returned 10 recent contract transactions by action date; sampled obligations total $3.6B. recent_contract_transaction_flow_score: 67.6 (constructive, confidence 90%, source USAspending transaction API)
COT / Futures Positioning	61.8	0.03	1.9	Futures-positioning proxy average absolute move is 0.81%; DXY -0.29%. cot_positioning_proxy_score: 61.8 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Revision	70.0	0.03	2.1	Run-revision proxy has 33 live inputs and 16 active caution flags. run_revision_proxy_score: 70.0 (supportive, confidence 80%, source Finance Swarm Control Layer)
Contradiction	47.6	0.05	2.4	Agent score dispersion is 15.8 points across 34 live inputs; 16 warning flags are active. cross_agent_contradiction_score: 47.6 (mixed, confidence 80%, source Finance Swarm Control Layer)

Dynamic Levers

Lever	Current	Tolerance	Review	Reason
live_tape_weight	0.12 weight	0.05 to 0.35	No	Live tape is important but cannot dominate once cross-asset agents are live.
confidence_cap	85.00 percent	15.00 to 85.00	No	Confidence is capped when source health, contradictions, and macro domains are not fully live.
blunder_avoidance_bias	0.65 bias	0.50 to 0.80	No	Munger-style posture: require stronger evidence before calling conditions attractive.

Trust Gates

No active trust gates.

Drivers

Positive

Dollar / FX: 55.2/100. Dollar proxies average -0.29%; stronger dollar tightens global liquidity.
Commodities: 66.9/100. Oil +0.81%, copper +2.11%, gold -0.82%.
Source Health: 100.0/100. 197/197 quote sources returned live data.
Policy Rate: 62.8/100. Live rate proxies average 4.37; rate basket is moving +0.25% today.
Inflation: 68.3/100. Inflation proxy: oil +0.81%, copper +2.11%, gold -0.82%, 10Y yield +0.08%.
Appropriations / Contracts: 67.6/100. USAspending returned 10 recent contract transactions by action date; sampled obligations total $3.6B.
COT / Futures Positioning: 61.8/100. Futures-positioning proxy average absolute move is 0.81%; DXY -0.29%.
Revision: 70.0/100. Run-revision proxy has 33 live inputs and 16 active caution flags.

Negative

Market Tape / Nowcast: 45.7/100. Live tape is mixed. Indexes average -0.58%, watched-equity breadth is 50%, and crypto averages -0.06%.
US Bond Market: 47.8/100. Rates average +0.18% and duration ETFs average -0.03%.
Credit: 50.0/100. High-yield proxies average +0.01% versus LQD +0.04%.
Market Internals: 42.9/100. FS sector basket breadth is 39%; 45% of sectors have at least half their top-3 sample positive.
Crypto Risk Appetite: 49.4/100. BTC/ETH average -0.06%.
Options / Volatility: 25.5/100. Volatility proxies average +3.06%.
Net Liquidity: 49.9/100. Liquidity proxy impulse is -0.01% using BTC, TLT, HYG, QQQ, and inverse dollar pressure.
Money Supply: 47.7/100. Monetary-liquidity proxy impulse is -0.23% across BTC, gold, TLT, and inverse dollar pressure.
Labor: 47.0/100. Labor-sensitive cyclical proxies average -0.25% across IWM, XLI, and XLY.
Housing: 24.3/100. Housing ETF proxies average -1.98% across XHB and ITB.
Consumer: 34.7/100. Consumer proxies: XLY -0.40%, XLP -0.63%, XRT -2.19%.
Earnings: 48.0/100. Earnings-sensitive equity proxy breadth is 39%; average move is -0.42%.
Valuation: 48.0/100. Equity valuation proxy: SPY/QQQ average -0.18%; rate pressure +0.08%.
Flows: 48.0/100. ETF flow proxy: risk basket -0.14% versus TLT +0.02%.
Sentiment: 30.6/100. Sentiment proxy: VIX/VIXY +3.06% versus BTC/QQQ -0.15%.
Prediction Markets: 24.2/100. Event-risk proxy: VIX +5.23%, UUP -0.29%, TLT +0.02%, SPY -0.41%.
Political Risk: 32.3/100. Policy-risk proxy: VIX +5.23%, UUP -0.29%, TLT +0.02%, XLI -0.15%.
Political Trades: 54.0/100. House PTR index shows 379 2026 periodic transaction filings; sampled filings mention no parsed tickers.
Contradiction: 47.6/100. Agent score dispersion is 15.8 points across 34 live inputs; 16 warning flags are active.

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