Control Layer

Score Breakdown

Finance Swarm sees a constructive but incomplete tape. Score is 59.3/100 with 82% confidence.

Components

Component	Score	Weight	Contribution	Evidence
Market Tape / Nowcast	52.1	0.12	6.3	Live tape is mixed. Indexes average +0.38%, watched-equity breadth is 50%, and crypto averages -0.72%. live_tape_score: 52.1 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
US Bond Market	52.4	0.10	5.2	Rates average +0.00% and duration ETFs average +0.20%. bond_market_score: 52.4 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Credit	49.1	0.10	4.9	High-yield proxies average +0.03% versus LQD +0.18%. credit_proxy_score: 49.1 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Dollar / FX	48.7	0.05	2.4	Dollar proxies average +0.07%; stronger dollar tightens global liquidity. dollar_liquidity_score: 48.7 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Commodities	58.0	0.05	2.9	Oil -5.67%, copper +1.00%, gold +0.57%. commodity_mix_score: 58.0 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Market Internals	56.9	0.10	5.7	FS sector basket breadth is 61%; 55% of sectors have at least half their top-3 sample positive. sector_breadth_score: 56.9 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Crypto Risk Appetite	42.8	0.03	1.3	BTC/ETH average -0.72%. crypto_risk_appetite_score: 42.8 (weak, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Options / Volatility	50.4	0.06	3.0	Volatility proxies average -0.05%. volatility_positioning_score: 50.4 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Source Health	100.0	0.07	7.0	142/142 quote sources returned live data. source_health_score: 100.0 (supportive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Policy Rate	67.1	0.06	4.0	Live rate proxies average 4.13; rate basket is moving +0.00% today. policy_rate_proxy_score: 67.1 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Net Liquidity	50.7	0.08	4.1	Liquidity proxy impulse is +0.06% using BTC, TLT, HYG, QQQ, and inverse dollar pressure. net_liquidity_proxy_score: 50.7 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Money Supply	51.1	0.04	2.0	Monetary-liquidity proxy impulse is +0.11% across BTC, gold, TLT, and inverse dollar pressure. money_supply_proxy_score: 51.1 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Inflation	85.0	0.06	5.1	Inflation proxy: oil -5.67%, copper +1.00%, gold +0.57%, 10Y yield +0.00%. inflation_proxy_score: 85.0 (supportive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Labor	58.3	0.04	2.3	Labor-sensitive cyclical proxies average +0.69% across IWM, XLI, and XLY. labor_market_proxy_score: 58.3 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Housing	54.0	0.03	1.6	Housing ETF proxies average +0.31% across XHB and ITB. housing_proxy_score: 54.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Consumer	59.7	0.01	0.6	Consumer proxies: XLY +0.40%, XLP +0.17%, XRT +0.92%. consumer_proxy_score: 59.7 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo live proxy data)
Earnings	68.1	0.07	4.8	Earnings-sensitive equity proxy breadth is 64%; average move is +0.37%. earnings_proxy_score: 68.1 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Valuation	53.3	0.06	3.2	Equity valuation proxy: SPY/QQQ average +0.41%; rate pressure +0.00%. valuation_proxy_score: 53.3 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Flows	54.0	0.04	2.2	ETF flow proxy: risk basket +0.44% versus TLT +0.55%. flows_proxy_score: 54.0 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Sentiment	49.4	0.04	2.0	Sentiment proxy: VIX/VIXY -0.05% versus BTC/QQQ -0.13%. sentiment_proxy_score: 49.4 (mixed, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Prediction Markets	55.9	0.03	1.7	Event-risk proxy: VIX -0.66%, UUP +0.14%, TLT +0.55%, SPY +0.39%. event_risk_proxy_score: 55.9 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Political Risk	62.9	0.03	1.9	Policy-risk proxy: VIX -0.66%, UUP +0.14%, TLT +0.55%, XLI +0.73%. political_risk_proxy_score: 62.9 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Political Trades	51.8	0.02	1.0	House PTR index shows 220 2026 periodic transaction filings; sampled filings mention no parsed tickers. house_ptr_activity_score: 51.8 (mixed, confidence 70%, source House Clerk PTR index and House PTR PDFs)
Appropriations / Contracts	71.4	0.02	1.4	USAspending returned 10 recent contract transactions by action date; sampled obligations total $7.4B. recent_contract_transaction_flow_score: 71.4 (supportive, confidence 90%, source USAspending transaction API)
COT / Futures Positioning	58.8	0.03	1.8	Futures-positioning proxy average absolute move is 1.56%; DXY +0.00%. cot_positioning_proxy_score: 58.8 (constructive, confidence 100%, source Yahoo chart endpoint)
Revision	82.0	0.03	2.5	Run-revision proxy has 25 live inputs and 4 active caution flags. run_revision_proxy_score: 82.0 (supportive, confidence 80%, source Finance Swarm Control Layer)
Contradiction	66.0	0.05	3.3	Agent score dispersion is 12.7 points across 26 live inputs; 4 warning flags are active. cross_agent_contradiction_score: 66.0 (constructive, confidence 80%, source Finance Swarm Control Layer)

Dynamic Levers

Lever	Current	Tolerance	Review	Reason
live_tape_weight	0.12 weight	0.05 to 0.35	No	Live tape is important but cannot dominate once cross-asset agents are live.
confidence_cap	85.00 percent	15.00 to 85.00	No	Confidence is capped when source health, contradictions, and macro domains are not fully live.
blunder_avoidance_bias	0.65 bias	0.50 to 0.80	No	Munger-style posture: require stronger evidence before calling conditions attractive.

Trust Gates

No active trust gates.

Drivers

Positive

Commodities: 58.0/100. Oil -5.67%, copper +1.00%, gold +0.57%.
Market Internals: 56.9/100. FS sector basket breadth is 61%; 55% of sectors have at least half their top-3 sample positive.
Source Health: 100.0/100. 142/142 quote sources returned live data.
Policy Rate: 67.1/100. Live rate proxies average 4.13; rate basket is moving +0.00% today.
Inflation: 85.0/100. Inflation proxy: oil -5.67%, copper +1.00%, gold +0.57%, 10Y yield +0.00%.
Labor: 58.3/100. Labor-sensitive cyclical proxies average +0.69% across IWM, XLI, and XLY.
Consumer: 59.7/100. Consumer proxies: XLY +0.40%, XLP +0.17%, XRT +0.92%.
Earnings: 68.1/100. Earnings-sensitive equity proxy breadth is 64%; average move is +0.37%.
Prediction Markets: 55.9/100. Event-risk proxy: VIX -0.66%, UUP +0.14%, TLT +0.55%, SPY +0.39%.
Political Risk: 62.9/100. Policy-risk proxy: VIX -0.66%, UUP +0.14%, TLT +0.55%, XLI +0.73%.
Appropriations / Contracts: 71.4/100. USAspending returned 10 recent contract transactions by action date; sampled obligations total $7.4B.
COT / Futures Positioning: 58.8/100. Futures-positioning proxy average absolute move is 1.56%; DXY +0.00%.
Revision: 82.0/100. Run-revision proxy has 25 live inputs and 4 active caution flags.
Contradiction: 66.0/100. Agent score dispersion is 12.7 points across 26 live inputs; 4 warning flags are active.

Negative

Market Tape / Nowcast: 52.1/100. Live tape is mixed. Indexes average +0.38%, watched-equity breadth is 50%, and crypto averages -0.72%.
US Bond Market: 52.4/100. Rates average +0.00% and duration ETFs average +0.20%.
Credit: 49.1/100. High-yield proxies average +0.03% versus LQD +0.18%.
Dollar / FX: 48.7/100. Dollar proxies average +0.07%; stronger dollar tightens global liquidity.
Crypto Risk Appetite: 42.8/100. BTC/ETH average -0.72%.
Options / Volatility: 50.4/100. Volatility proxies average -0.05%.
Net Liquidity: 50.7/100. Liquidity proxy impulse is +0.06% using BTC, TLT, HYG, QQQ, and inverse dollar pressure.
Money Supply: 51.1/100. Monetary-liquidity proxy impulse is +0.11% across BTC, gold, TLT, and inverse dollar pressure.
Housing: 54.0/100. Housing ETF proxies average +0.31% across XHB and ITB.
Valuation: 53.3/100. Equity valuation proxy: SPY/QQQ average +0.41%; rate pressure +0.00%.
Flows: 54.0/100. ETF flow proxy: risk basket +0.44% versus TLT +0.55%.
Sentiment: 49.4/100. Sentiment proxy: VIX/VIXY -0.05% versus BTC/QQQ -0.13%.
Political Trades: 51.8/100. House PTR index shows 220 2026 periodic transaction filings; sampled filings mention no parsed tickers.

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