Intrinsic Value / DCF Agent
Company-specific DCF, reverse DCF, sensitivity, and margin-of-safety view. This does not feed the whole-market score.
JNJ | Johnson & Johnson
JNJ screen-grade DCF value is 99.97/share versus live price 275.19 (-63.7% to value). Margin-of-safety price is 74.98; reverse DCF implies 28.31% annual FCF growth.
Calculation integrity: OK
Decision readiness: Screen-grade only; forecast growth, WACC, terminal growth, and EV-to-equity bridge require investor review.
Ticker-only score, excluded from whole-market FS score.
Assumptions
| Years | FCF Growth | WACC | Terminal Growth | Margin Of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3.97% | 10.35% | 2.50% | 25.00% |
Observed Facts
| Fact | Source Field | Value | As Of | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FCF | trailingFreeCashFlow | 19.59B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Net Income | trailingNetIncome | 16.09B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Operating Income | trailingOperatingIncome | 25.52B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Invested Capital | quarterlyInvestedCapital | 126.18B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Share Count | quarterlyDilutedAverageShares | 2.45B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Cash And Short-Term Investments | quarterlyCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments | 17.23B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Total Debt | quarterlyTotalDebt | 44.65B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| 10Y Treasury Proxy | Yahoo chart endpoint | +4.85% | current | Rate input for default WACC |
Valuation Bridge
Forecast
| Year | FCF | Discount Factor | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20.37B | 0.906 | 18.46B |
| 2 | 21.18B | 0.821 | 17.39B |
| 3 | 22.02B | 0.744 | 16.39B |
| 4 | 22.90B | 0.674 | 15.44B |
| 5 | 23.81B | 0.611 | 14.55B |
Sensitivity
| WACC | Terminal Growth | Value / Share |
|---|---|---|
| 9.35% | 2.00% | 109.58 |
| 9.35% | 2.50% | 116.33 |
| 9.35% | 3.00% | 124.14 |
| 10.35% | 2.00% | 94.97 |
| 10.35% | 2.50% | 99.97 |
| 10.35% | 3.00% | 105.65 |
| 11.35% | 2.00% | 83.49 |
| 11.35% | 2.50% | 87.31 |
| 11.35% | 3.00% | 91.59 |
Warnings
- No model warnings.
Sources
- Yahoo chart endpoint for live price
- Yahoo fundamentals time-series for FCF, net income, operating income, invested capital, share count, cash, and debt
- Yahoo chart endpoint for 10Y Treasury proxy
Owner-Minded Checklist
Simple screen: low price, high earnings yield, high return on capital. Passing the screen is not permission to buy; it earns deeper work.
Upside to DCF value: -63.67%
Higher means more earnings for each dollar paid.
High is attractive unless reinvestment quality is poor.
Operating income divided by invested capital when available.
Need To Know
- MOAT: MOAT is a competitive-advantage gate, not a price datapoint. Look for durable pricing power, switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, brand, distribution, or regulation.
- ROC: High ROC means each retained dollar can become more dollars. That is the engine behind compounding.
- Negative cash flow: It can be good when the cash is building high-ROC capacity, like stores, factories, software, or distribution that earn more later. It is bad when it only funds weak unit economics or survival.
- Kleiber's Law lens: Use log-log charts to compare company scale against output such as earnings, FCF, or ROC. A strong business keeps output scaling well as size grows; a weak one needs more capital for less incremental return.