Intrinsic Value / DCF Agent
Company-specific DCF, reverse DCF, sensitivity, and margin-of-safety view. This does not feed the whole-market score.
JNJ | Johnson & Johnson
JNJ screen-grade DCF value is 115.94/share versus live price 269.32 (-57.0% to value). Margin-of-safety price is 86.95; reverse DCF implies 24.00% annual FCF growth.
Calculation integrity: OK
Decision readiness: Screen-grade only; forecast growth, WACC, terminal growth, and EV-to-equity bridge require investor review.
Ticker-only score, excluded from whole-market FS score.
Assumptions
| Years | FCF Growth | WACC | Terminal Growth | Margin Of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3.97% | 10.29% | 2.50% | 25.00% |
Observed Facts
| Fact | Source Field | Value | As Of | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FCF | trailingFreeCashFlow | 22.23B | 2026-06-30 | TTM USD |
| Net Income | trailingNetIncome | 21.04B | 2026-06-30 | TTM USD |
| Operating Income | trailingOperatingIncome | 26.26B | 2026-06-30 | TTM USD |
| Invested Capital | quarterlyInvestedCapital | 134.01B | 2026-06-30 | 3M USD |
| Share Count | quarterlyDilutedAverageShares | 2.44B | 2026-06-30 | 3M USD |
| Cash And Short-Term Investments | quarterlyCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments | 20.76B | 2026-06-30 | 3M USD |
| Total Debt | quarterlyTotalDebt | 49.04B | 2026-06-30 | 3M USD |
| 10Y Treasury Proxy | Yahoo chart endpoint | +4.79% | current | Rate input for default WACC |
Valuation Bridge
Forecast
| Year | FCF | Discount Factor | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23.11B | 0.907 | 20.95B |
| 2 | 24.03B | 0.822 | 19.75B |
| 3 | 24.98B | 0.745 | 18.62B |
| 4 | 25.97B | 0.676 | 17.55B |
| 5 | 27.00B | 0.613 | 16.55B |
Sensitivity
| WACC | Terminal Growth | Value / Share |
|---|---|---|
| 9.29% | 2.00% | 127.04 |
| 9.29% | 2.50% | 134.87 |
| 9.29% | 3.00% | 143.95 |
| 10.29% | 2.00% | 110.15 |
| 10.29% | 2.50% | 115.94 |
| 10.29% | 3.00% | 122.52 |
| 11.29% | 2.00% | 96.90 |
| 11.29% | 2.50% | 101.32 |
| 11.29% | 3.00% | 106.27 |
Warnings
- No model warnings.
Sources
- Yahoo chart endpoint for live price
- Yahoo fundamentals time-series for FCF, net income, operating income, invested capital, share count, cash, and debt
- Yahoo chart endpoint for 10Y Treasury proxy
Owner-Minded Checklist
Simple screen: low price, high earnings yield, high return on capital. Passing the screen is not permission to buy; it earns deeper work.
Upside to DCF value: -56.95%
Higher means more earnings for each dollar paid.
High is attractive unless reinvestment quality is poor.
Operating income divided by invested capital when available.
Need To Know
- MOAT: MOAT is a competitive-advantage gate, not a price datapoint. Look for durable pricing power, switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, brand, distribution, or regulation.
- ROC: High ROC means each retained dollar can become more dollars. That is the engine behind compounding.
- Negative cash flow: It can be good when the cash is building high-ROC capacity, like stores, factories, software, or distribution that earn more later. It is bad when it only funds weak unit economics or survival.
- Kleiber's Law lens: Use log-log charts to compare company scale against output such as earnings, FCF, or ROC. A strong business keeps output scaling well as size grows; a weak one needs more capital for less incremental return.