Intrinsic Value / DCF Agent
Company-specific DCF, reverse DCF, sensitivity, and margin-of-safety view. This does not feed the whole-market score.
MSFT | Microsoft Corporation
MSFT screen-grade DCF value is 113.14/share versus live price 532.89 (-78.8% to value). Margin-of-safety price is 84.85; reverse DCF implies outside the model bracket.
Calculation integrity: OK
Decision readiness: Screen-grade only; forecast growth, WACC, terminal growth, and EV-to-equity bridge require investor review.
Ticker-only score, excluded from whole-market FS score.
Assumptions
| Years | FCF Growth | WACC | Terminal Growth | Margin Of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4.04% | 10.35% | 2.50% | 25.00% |
Observed Facts
| Fact | Source Field | Value | As Of | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FCF | trailingFreeCashFlow | 59.96B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Net Income | trailingNetIncome | 142.63B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Operating Income | trailingOperatingIncome | 163.19B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Invested Capital | quarterlyInvestedCapital | 505.99B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Share Count | quarterlyDilutedAverageShares | 7.45B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Cash And Short-Term Investments | quarterlyCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments | 64.29B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Total Debt | quarterlyTotalDebt | 57.20B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| 10Y Treasury Proxy | Yahoo chart endpoint | +4.85% | current | Rate input for default WACC |
Valuation Bridge
Forecast
| Year | FCF | Discount Factor | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62.38B | 0.906 | 56.53B |
| 2 | 64.90B | 0.821 | 53.30B |
| 3 | 67.52B | 0.744 | 50.25B |
| 4 | 70.25B | 0.674 | 47.38B |
| 5 | 73.09B | 0.611 | 44.67B |
Sensitivity
| WACC | Terminal Growth | Value / Share |
|---|---|---|
| 9.35% | 2.00% | 122.84 |
| 9.35% | 2.50% | 129.66 |
| 9.35% | 3.00% | 137.55 |
| 10.35% | 2.00% | 108.09 |
| 10.35% | 2.50% | 113.14 |
| 10.35% | 3.00% | 118.88 |
| 11.35% | 2.00% | 96.50 |
| 11.35% | 2.50% | 100.36 |
| 11.35% | 3.00% | 104.68 |
Warnings
- Reverse DCF did not solve inside the -20% to +30% annual FCF growth bracket.
Sources
- Yahoo chart endpoint for live price
- Yahoo fundamentals time-series for FCF, net income, operating income, invested capital, share count, cash, and debt
- Yahoo chart endpoint for 10Y Treasury proxy
Owner-Minded Checklist
Simple screen: low price, high earnings yield, high return on capital. Passing the screen is not permission to buy; it earns deeper work.
Upside to DCF value: -78.77%
Higher means more earnings for each dollar paid.
High is attractive unless reinvestment quality is poor.
Operating income divided by invested capital when available.
Need To Know
- MOAT: MOAT is a competitive-advantage gate, not a price datapoint. Look for durable pricing power, switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, brand, distribution, or regulation.
- ROC: High ROC means each retained dollar can become more dollars. That is the engine behind compounding.
- Negative cash flow: It can be good when the cash is building high-ROC capacity, like stores, factories, software, or distribution that earn more later. It is bad when it only funds weak unit economics or survival.
- Kleiber's Law lens: Use log-log charts to compare company scale against output such as earnings, FCF, or ROC. A strong business keeps output scaling well as size grows; a weak one needs more capital for less incremental return.