Intrinsic Value / DCF Agent
Company-specific DCF, reverse DCF, sensitivity, and margin-of-safety view. This does not feed the whole-market score.
TSLA | Tesla, Inc.
TSLA screen-grade DCF value is 16.90/share versus live price 360.09 (-95.3% to value). Margin-of-safety price is 12.67; reverse DCF implies outside the model bracket.
Calculation integrity: OK
Decision readiness: Screen-grade only; forecast growth, WACC, terminal growth, and EV-to-equity bridge require investor review.
Ticker-only score, excluded from whole-market FS score.
Assumptions
| Years | FCF Growth | WACC | Terminal Growth | Margin Of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | -5.00% | 10.36% | 2.50% | 25.00% |
Observed Facts
| Fact | Source Field | Value | As Of | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FCF | trailingFreeCashFlow | 3.30B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Net Income | trailingNetIncome | 3.22B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Operating Income | trailingOperatingIncome | 3.63B | 2026-09-30 | TTM USD |
| Invested Capital | quarterlyInvestedCapital | 98.56B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Share Count | quarterlyDilutedAverageShares | 3.54B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Cash And Short-Term Investments | quarterlyCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments | 45.22B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| Total Debt | quarterlyTotalDebt | 16.45B | 2026-09-30 | 3M USD |
| 10Y Treasury Proxy | Yahoo chart endpoint | +4.86% | current | Rate input for default WACC |
Valuation Bridge
Forecast
| Year | FCF | Discount Factor | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.13B | 0.906 | 2.84B |
| 2 | 2.97B | 0.821 | 2.44B |
| 3 | 2.83B | 0.744 | 2.10B |
| 4 | 2.68B | 0.674 | 1.81B |
| 5 | 2.55B | 0.611 | 1.56B |
Sensitivity
| WACC | Terminal Growth | Value / Share |
|---|---|---|
| 9.36% | 2.00% | 17.62 |
| 9.36% | 2.50% | 18.12 |
| 9.36% | 3.00% | 18.69 |
| 10.36% | 2.00% | 16.53 |
| 10.36% | 2.50% | 16.90 |
| 10.36% | 3.00% | 17.32 |
| 11.36% | 2.00% | 15.67 |
| 11.36% | 2.50% | 15.95 |
| 11.36% | 3.00% | 16.27 |
Warnings
- Reverse DCF did not solve inside the -20% to +30% annual FCF growth bracket.
Sources
- Yahoo chart endpoint for live price
- Yahoo fundamentals time-series for FCF, net income, operating income, invested capital, share count, cash, and debt
- Yahoo chart endpoint for 10Y Treasury proxy
Owner-Minded Checklist
Simple screen: low price, high earnings yield, high return on capital. Passing the screen is not permission to buy; it earns deeper work.
Upside to DCF value: -95.31%
Higher means more earnings for each dollar paid.
High is attractive unless reinvestment quality is poor.
Operating income divided by invested capital when available.
Need To Know
- MOAT: MOAT is a competitive-advantage gate, not a price datapoint. Look for durable pricing power, switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, brand, distribution, or regulation.
- ROC: High ROC means each retained dollar can become more dollars. That is the engine behind compounding.
- Negative cash flow: It can be good when the cash is building high-ROC capacity, like stores, factories, software, or distribution that earn more later. It is bad when it only funds weak unit economics or survival.
- Kleiber's Law lens: Use log-log charts to compare company scale against output such as earnings, FCF, or ROC. A strong business keeps output scaling well as size grows; a weak one needs more capital for less incremental return.